India’s metals and mining sector closed Q3FY26 on an eventful note, with operational delays, corporate restructuring signals and price momentum shaping investor sentiment ahead of the March quarter.
A key development came from Novelis, which flagged delays in restarting its Oswego facility, raising concerns about near-term balance sheet pressure. Meanwhile, Vedanta Ltd reaffirmed that its proposed demerger remains on track, with 1 April 2026 set as the effective date — a move closely watched by the market.
In steel, Tata Steel signalled that recent price hikes appear sustainable. European steel prices, the company indicated, could rise by around €100 per tonne in calendar year 2026, narrowing the gap with US benchmarks. At the same time, Gravita India Ltd guided for the commissioning of an additional 125 kilotonnes of lead capacity in Q4FY26, with full ramp-up expected by Q2FY27.
Ferrous: Softer quarter, stronger outlook
Ferrous players reported combined EBITDA of ₹187bn, down 8.9% quarter-on-quarter but marginally ahead of expectations. Management commentary points to a stronger Q4, supported by ₹3,000–4,000 per tonne improvement in realisations. Although coking coal costs are projected to rise by $15–20 per tonne, higher volumes and firmer trade-level prices — currently 10–15% above Q3 averages — are expected to offset the impact.
Non-ferrous: Strong momentum, cautious tone
The non-ferrous segment delivered EBITDA of ₹259bn, up 11.5% sequentially, buoyed by gains in aluminium, zinc and silver prices. Aluminium prices have averaged $3,115 per tonne so far in Q4, compared with $2,831 in Q3. While earnings momentum remains favourable, analysts caution that global macro volatility could temper near-term upside.
Among preferred picks, Tata Steel and SAIL lead the ferrous space, while Vedanta remains favoured in non-ferrous. Gravita, meanwhile, continues to stand out in the recycling segment.
