Indian cement manufacturers are expected to post a solid performance in the January-March 2026 quarter, driven by robust demand and higher prices that should more than offset rising costs.
According to analysts, companies in the coverage universe are likely to report around 8% year-on-year volume growth in the seasonally strong fourth quarter. This comes after a slower first half of the fiscal year, with demand recovering from individual housing and a pick-up in the non-trade segment following the festive period.
Leading players are forecast to deliver even stronger growth. Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cement are expected to see volumes rise by 12% and 10% respectively, helped by better integration of acquired assets. JK Cement is projected to grow 14% on a low base, while Shree Cement and Ramco are likely to record more modest increases.Cement prices rose during the quarter after companies implemented hikes from January.
Realisations are estimated to improve by 2-3% quarter-on-quarter on average, with the sharpest increases seen in the South and East regions.On the cost side, per-tonne expenses are expected to fall by around Rs 30 due to efficiency gains and operating leverage. Higher energy costs linked to the West Asia conflict are not expected to hit this quarter as firms hold sufficient inventory until May.
Recent price hikes of Rs 40 per bag (with Rs 25 sustained) should help absorb rising packaging costs.As a result, EBITDA per tonne for the coverage universe is projected to rise sharply to Rs 1,046, up Rs 200 from the previous quarter. Ultratech and Shree Cement are expected to lead with around Rs 1,200 per tonne.
For the full financial year, the industry is projected to grow 7-8%, with larger players commanding nearly two-thirds of capacity. However, analysts remain cautious in the near term due to potential diesel price hikes after elections and uncertainty over input costs.Ultratech and Ambuja Cement are highlighted as top large-cap picks, with Nuvoco Vistas preferred in the small-cap space
