India’s retail sector is entering a transformational phase, projected to expand from ₹83 trillion in FY25 to between ₹123–135 trillion by FY30, an annual growth of around 8–10%. Yet, per-capita consumption still stands at just 15–20% of China’s levels, suggesting a long runway for formalisation. Organised retail is expected to rise from 21% to 33% of the market, shifting up to USD 540 billion into formal channels. E-commerce is likely to capture most of this transition, with a projected GMV growth rate of 20–25%.
Key categories such as fashion, beauty and personal care, home essentials and grocery remain significantly underpenetrated online. With over three-quarters of supply still unbranded, analysts say value-led platforms are best positioned to capture the next phase of digital retail expansion. Among them, Meesho has emerged as a dominant player, leveraging its zero-commission model, low-priced assortment and discovery-driven experience tailored to Tier-2 and Tier-3 consumers.
The company has built strong network effects, with Annual Transacting Users rising from 136 million in FY23 to 234 million in FY25. Its in-house logistics arm, Valmo, now handles two-thirds of shipments, reducing delivery costs to ₹32–34 per order—up to 11% lower than peers. Combined with a lean cost structure and AI-driven personalisation, Meesho has carved out a cost advantage in low-ticket categories.
The platform maintains a 29–31% share of India’s e-commerce shipments, with NMV expected to grow at 31% annually through FY28. Order frequency has improved, customer acquisition costs are falling, and contribution margins have risen from 2.9% in FY23 to 5% in FY25. Analysts expect margins to reach 5.8% by FY28, supported by improving logistics efficiency and stable take rates.
Meesho is projected to achieve EBITDA breakeven by FY27. With revenue expected to grow at 31% annually through FY28, analysts have initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of ₹200, citing its strong position in India’s expanding value-commerce market.
