Tata Motors’ commercial vehicles business (TMCV) is positioning itself for a renewed phase of growth as India’s CV market enters a recovery cycle. The company, which commands over 35% of the domestic commercial vehicle market by volume and 42% by revenue, is seeking to expand margins and strengthen its global footprint through a mix of product upgrades, disciplined pricing and structural reforms.
Despite a 5% contraction in volumes and a significant loss of market share between FY19 and FY25, TMCV still delivered revenue and EBITDA growth of 6% and 7% respectively. Analysts now expect the firm to post 6% revenue and 8% EBITDA CAGR between FY25 and FY28, supported by its focus on higher-tonnage trucks, non-core revenue streams and tighter cost control.
A planned demerger, aimed at shedding legacy complexities, is expected to offer sharper strategic direction. The company is simultaneously pursuing global expansion, leveraging competitive manufacturing costs, maturing R&D capabilities and potential synergies in revenue, cost and capital expenditure.
While TMCV has been trading at a modest discount to rival Ashok Leyland due to slower volume growth and weakness in light commercial vehicles, analysts believe a domestic CV upcycle and improving profitability could help narrow the gap. Its leadership in the heavy truck segment—particularly vehicles above 31 tonnes, where it holds more than 60% market share—remains a key advantage.
The recent acquisition of IVECO is set to expand TMCV’s global addressable market, creating a combined scale of over ₹2 trillion in revenue and more than 545,000 units in annual volumes. The company aims to replicate the successful turnaround of Jaguar Land Rover, which shifted from being cash-negative to net-cash through tighter capital discipline and simplified platforms.
Analysts value TMCV’s domestic CV business at 13.5 times forward EV/EBITDA and IVECO at 2.5 times, assigning a target price of ₹430. Potential risks include market volatility, global integration challenges and further shifts in market share.
