India’s economic journey since the Second World War can be understood through two powerful drivers of development: exports and real estate. Across much of Asia, export-led industrialisation and expanding property markets helped transform low-income economies into middle-income nations. Advances in technology and productivity reinforced this process by making industries more competitive and housing more affordable, while broader social gains such as higher living standards and greater inclusion typically followed over time.
India’s record on these two pillars presents a mixed picture.
Following the economic reforms of 1991, exports began to grow steadily before accelerating during the mid-2000s. Economists have linked part of this momentum to reforms introduced during the National Democratic Alliance government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee between 1998 and 2004. These included infrastructure expansion, privatisation and efforts to strengthen engineering and technology capabilities. India’s engineering goods, pharmaceuticals and technology services subsequently emerged as important export sectors.
However, the pace slowed after the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Exports have largely plateaued, while their share of India’s GDP peaked at around 25% in 2013-14 before trending lower. Although exports rebounded after the Covid-19 pandemic, recent years suggest that the longer-term slowdown has resumed. Analysts point to persistent challenges including limited manufacturing competitiveness, logistics bottlenecks, modest participation in global value chains and a services export sector concentrated in a relatively small number of industries.
The picture is similarly complex in real estate. Detailed estimates of the sector’s direct contribution to GDP remain limited. However, the broader category covering financial services, real estate and professional services has expanded from around 15% of GDP in the early 1990s to roughly 22–24% today. While this reflects the sector’s growing economic importance, questions remain over whether India’s property market has developed sufficiently to support sustained urbanisation, investment and long-term economic growth.
Together, these trends suggest that two of the traditional engines of development remain works in progress for India.
